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Brexit 2016

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Official thread.

I will be voting to Leave Europe.

what about you?

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33

UK credit rating downgraded over Brexit uncertainty

The UK’s credit rating was downgraded by Moody’s late on Friday night, prompting a dispute with the government over the health of Britain’s public finances.

Reducing the credit rating a notch to Aa2, or two rungs below the triple A rating the UK had enjoyed for 35 years until 2013, Moody’s said that the public finances were more stressed than the Treasury believed and the challenges of Brexit would increase risks to the exchequer and complicate policymaking.

The timing of the rating agency’s decision could not be more wounding for Theresa May who hoped her speech in Florence, seeking to kick life back into the Brexit negotiations, would ease her political difficulties.

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And despite the exchange between EU and UK officials, the audience was pretty confident that Brexit, whatever its short-term challenges, would be good for them, with 67% confident that Brexit would bring their business new competitive opportunities inside the next five years.

www.pwc.co.uk/who-we-a...

NI optimism. what are we all worrying about?

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*BARNIER SAYS BREXIT TALKS HAVE REACHED DEADLOCK

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Over which issues?

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They want a number from the UK on the divorce bill, say they cant propose discussions on a trade deal until sorted

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www.huffingtonpost.co....

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uk.reuters.com/article...

This will just speed up unity calls if implemented as Brokenshire outlines. The Republic's GDP is projected to fall 4% in that case but Germany are willing to prop them up to keep EU unity alive. Just means NI will suffer the most which will make unity now geographically and then economically viable in the short term.

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EU WILL REJECT OPENING TALKS WITH UK ON BREXIT TRANSITION AND FUTURE TRADE IF BORDER OFFER UNACCEPTABLE TO IRELAND -TUSK

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"The Irish request is the EU's request," Mr Tusk said. "I realise that for some British politicians this may be hard to understand. But such is the logic behind the fact that Ireland is the EU member while the UK is leaving. This is why the key to the UK's future lies - in some ways - in Dublin, at least as long as Brexit negotiations continue."

DUP will love that :D

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Varadkar playing a blinder. Come on lad.

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*U.K., EU SAID TO PLAN JOINT BREXIT STATEMENT AFTER TALKS MONDAY

*DUP IS SAID TO BE 'ON BOARD' WITH IRELAND BORDER DRAFT: SKY

BRITAIN AND THE EU ARE UNDERSTOOD TO HAVE AGREED A DEAL TO ENSURE THERE IS NO HARD BORDER BETWEEN NORTHERN IRELAND AND THE REPUBLIC OF IRELAND - DAILY TELEGRAPH POLITICAL REPORTER ON TWITTER - Reuters News

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From the Guardian:
According to Sky’s Faisal Islam, the language in the draft text of the agreement seems to have switched from talking about avoiding regulatory divergence between the Republic and Northern Ireland (see 11.44am) to maintaining regulatory alignment.

This would bring it into line with the language proposed by the European parliament’s Brexit steering group (BSG) in their open letter to Michel Barnier last week. They said:

"Concerning Ireland, the BSG believes that the UK must make a clear commitment, to be enshrined in a form which would guarantee its full implementation in the withdrawal agreement, that it would protect the operation of the Good Friday agreement in all its parts, ensure, by means of continued regulatory alignment between the North and the South, there is no hardening of the border on the island of Ireland and that there is no diminishing of the rights of people in Northern Ireland."

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A good day for Ireland.

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anything that winds up the DUP is good news to me

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Brian Lucey, professor of finance at the school of business, Trinity College Dublin, said:

I think alignment is the more ambiguous form of words that give wriggle room. There will always be subtle divergence between two jurisdictions and it is always up to two national governments to decide what they are.

For instance Ireland and Northern Ireland have different duties and VAT levels even though both are currently in the EU.

“The big question is that regulatory alignment has to imply a regulatory or customs barrier in the Irish sea unless the UK aligns itself too,” said Lucey.

This will not be acceptable to Brexiteers or the Democratic Unionist Party which has said this is tantamount to the break up of the United Kingdom.

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Staying in the single market could be great for the border regions esp in the north west aslong as that doesn't jeopardise any UK trade in anyway as DUP are right on one thing our trade with the rest of the UK makes up close 80% and our trade with the south is only like 3% which is rather shocking considering how much trade they get out of us.

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This seems too good to be true. I'll await to hear what May is going to say on this. The DUP have already come out fighting with a press conference with no questions about 20 mins ago. If it is NI aligning with ROI for customs then I can see DUP/Tory brexiteers vetoing this when it goes to a Commons vote and thus we go to a No deal situation. A hard border comes in and quite possibly could be the end of the May's government.

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Arlene said NI needs to be exactly the same as rest of the UK and they wont support "Special Status". Scotland says if we can get special status they should too. UK are fine with special status, DUP are not. We will be voting again in January. The government is finished. Along with our 1 billion quid extra cash. That cunt Foster will do anything (except bring in gay marriage) to be seen as being the same as the rest of the UK.

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Huge ramifications for London if Theresa May has conceded that it's possible for part of the UK to remain within the single market & customs union after Brexit. Londoners overwhelmingly voted to remain in the EU and a similar deal here could protect tens of thousands of jobs. - London Mayor.

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really regret voting leave

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not that our vote here in N.I. mattered a fuck

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I think the ramifications for NI are larger (potentially) than they are for London. Admittedly more people in London than NI but if no deal status arrives and an actual customs border go back into place in NI then there will be bother from dissidents. Potential for violence spiral is plain to see. I can't see London nor Scotland getting anywhere near special status if what is be mooted actually is what the deal contains. I am very skeptical that what is coming out is what May and her Brexit team have chosen to go for.

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If it does happen how the EU is currently spinning it, time to start lifting property in the North

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i have a feeling she has come to an agreement with EU and Ireland over the NI situation, and the DUP are gonna be fucking raging.

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RJ do you feel like a spasticunt for voting leave? Glad you learned that word now

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Bit harsh

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Senior DUP source tells me NI-Eire regulatory alignment "doesn't have Arlene's approval". Adds: "So it's a no go. We leave on same terms".

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Do they really have the power to block this? If so surely a vote to remain in single market or not would be way forward. If we milked the 1 billion along with access to the two markets things could really be prosperous here possibly.

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They dont. May will say fuck off Arlene, assuming this is the deal, she'll pull her votes, May will try to struggle on with a minority government for a while.

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May will scare them with Corbyn, the DUP have no teeth here.

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Comical a backward as fuck party like the DUP holding anyone to ransom.

Madness they even have any sort of clout to begin with.

Want Norn Iron to be the same as the rest of the UK but pick and choose what's parts of their rules they like when it suits them.

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The DUP are not who to be watching here. The right-wing Tory brexidiots who the DUP have aligned with are who will topple May. The same argument of scaring them with Corbyn works there too I suppose. If May has actually gone with this, shows she's prepared to take risks.

On another note, have a look through Bryson's twitter timeline for the past few hours. It's a joy to behold and will brighten your day lol.

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i find it absolutely insane that discussions around this has no representative from here actually attending? I could be wrong but aren't our elected politicians doing nothing more that sitting on the sidelines while they "await the final text"? Dublin, Brussels and London talking about our future without us actually being represented in any direct way.

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Techniocally none of them are elected until Stormont is turned back on.

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In away if this goes threw you would think SF would shut the UI thing a bit and make unionists less paranoid so they would vote for other parties! They may think they will get one step closer to a UI but really when you think about it this makes NI quite independent esp if we had Stormont up and running so everyone would be more happy!

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Becoming clearer and clearer a United Ireland is coming at some stage.

Scotland will certainly leave the UK soon, union is doomed

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the issue for both parties is that they are driven mostly by ideology, not pragmatism. so the DUP will only accept full parity with the UK, not because it benefits people here to be able to work and trade as freely as possible, as that will not be the case, but due to their need to strengthen the Union. so they'll be happy to see the people suffer for that.

for SF its largely the same, though they have more outs as the practical arguments (a middle ground for NI in Brexit) are on their side. they also win if the DUP have their way as they look just as willing to see the people hurt so that they go running to the EU via Dublin in desperation.

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Given the DUP opposition to Corbyn RP, its almost ballachingly ironic that a labour govenment would keep the UK within the single market nullifing this entire problem, as well as increasing social spending and keeping the NHS in public hands. Basically the three things that will keep union minded catholics from being drawn to a UI

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Gateway to both markets could be the best thing ever for here why would you want a UI or the Union to fall if we finally get our economy to kick on. Like many who really feels connected to London or Dublin up here we are our own unique pack of hallions.

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BBC saying no agreement today

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Someone is getting cold feet Daire. As I said I suspect this is too good to be true.

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i suspect they were close to a deal and then Arlene had that fucking press conference.

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Would agree Shane. Unionists are shitting themselves.

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Yeah, reports that May was straight on the phone to Foster after the presser. DUP saying 'this a row about nothing' now. They'll just change the wording so both sides look like they are get something out of it but nothing actually resolved and can kicked down the road. Buys everyone time on this issue and they can deal with it later if trade negotiations look like they will come to something. If that looks like failing, makes the border issue a whole different matter as would be a hard Brexit anyway

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Its horrible that our fate is in the hands of a bunch of absolute spasticunts.

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that word is getting overused today..

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Its like when I went to buy a car, and I pretended to sales man (EU) that I need to call the Mrs before I signed on the dotted line. Delay tactic to get a better deal, except its was more like, shit I forgot to check with the Mrs (ARLENE), she'll fucking kill me.

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Dufunk happy enough tho for the torys over in England to be running things when in reality we have little say.

Doesn't even matter most here voted to remain.

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fucking DUP, hunning it up as per usual.

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We get to do a brave bit on our own with the 11 billion if we had a government.

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